Indiana can only control what it can control. That's what Curt Cignetti would say as it relates to pretty much anything, but it goes double for any discussion about the Hoosiers' Playoff résumé.

IU cannot control what other teams do in order to help or hurt its strength of schedule. So far, IU has earned the benefit of the doubt in the AP Poll, thanks in large part to the whole "defending national champs" thing. It's the best flex possible.

But at this time next week, the first Playoff Poll will be out and we'll have already dissected it six ways to Sunday. For IU, the problem isn't necessarily in the present, but rather in the future.

Like, are we sure that IU will have a single ranked win five weeks from now?

Just to be clear, "ranked wins on Selection Sunday" refers to teams who'll be in the final College Football Playoff rankings not which teams were ranked at the time of the matchup.

That needs to be said. It also needs to be said that if you did want to lean into that metric and see what things would look like if chalk played out, IU would not have a single win against a team ranked in the Top 25 at the time of the matchup.

But that's not what we're talking about. We're looking into the crystal ball and wondering what IU's résumé will look like when the Playoff field is decided on Selection Sunday.

If IU is 11-1 without a trip to the Big Ten Championship — UCLA and Ohio State are slated for that if chalk plays out — it will likely make the Playoff without any concern. That's the good news.

The bad news is that it'll be in jeopardy of missing out on a home game if the best win is against Northwestern. David Braun's squad is 6-1 and is one of the surprise teams in the sport with Chip Kelly's Wing-T sets. They also sit at No. 20 in America as the second-lowest ranked one-loss Power Conference team.

Why is that? Northwestern doesn't have any quality wins.

The second that the Cats lose another game, they're falling out of the Top 25. Perhaps that'll happen this weekend when they travel to Oregon for a Kelly reunion game. If not then, a home game against Iowa or a road trip to Ohio State could hand the Cats another loss.

Would a 10-2 Northwestern squad be ranked on Selection Sunday? Most likely, yes. Would a 9-3 Northwestern squad that lacks quality wins? That's much less likely.

OK, so if Northwestern is more of a coin flip to earn a Top 25 spot in the final Playoff Poll, let's look at some other potential options.

What about Saturday's foe, Minnesota? The Gophers are at 5-2 with a 3-1 mark in SEC play. They've got opportunities remaining for quality wins, including Saturday in Bloomington.

The Gophers' path to counting as a ranked win for IU on Selection Sunday would involve losing on Saturday, but then winning out with a schedule that includes aforementioned UCLA, a trip to Penn State, vs. Northwestern and a trip to Wisconsin.

You're essentially banking on an up-and-down Minnesota team hitting a 5-leg parlay in order for that to count as a ranked win for IU. Good luck with that.

Ah, what a blast. USC is currently unranked with two losses and is tied with Minnesota with just seven votes in the AP Poll, which would change if the Trojans beat Julian Sayin-less Ohio State this weekend.

But if they lose to a backup quarterback again, kiss that potential Selection Sunday ranking goodbye (and perhaps also kiss Lincoln Riley's time at USC goodbye).

On the flip side, what if USC wins against Ohio State? Will the Trojans actually get enough credit for beating a team with a backup quarterback? Even if they do, IU then turning around and beating USC in a couple weeks would be loss No. 3 for a team that skipped playing a Power Conference team in non-conference play.

You see what I'm getting at. By virtue of IU beating any of these teams, they could all be in jeopardy of falling out of the Top 25. A 10-2 Northwestern feels like the only hope for IU.

And yeah, don't hold your breath on messy 3-loss Michigan/Washington turning things around en route to a Top 25 ranking by Selection Sunday. I'm not sure that needed to be said, but just in case it did, there you go.

An 11-1 mark (in this hypothetical scenario) would have a different feel for IU than it had two years ago. That much we know.

But we don't know that the things outside of IU's control will line up well enough to earn a favorable Playoff draw.

I suppose there are worse problems to have.