The results from the Seattle Seahawks on offense so far this season have been mixed. There’s been some good and some not-so-good. Which is understandable, given that they have a first-time playcaller and played half the games with a backup quarterback. But there’s a clear trend so far, which is similar to the trend established under Klint Kubiak.

Dangerous When Heavy

A ‘heavy’ offensive set in the NFL is defined by having zero, one or two wide receivers on the field. Basically, you go heavy on the tight ends and backs. And so far, Seattle is clearly performing better from such heavy sets. Naturally, they’re also in these sets more often than most teams, currently 62% of the time, third highest in the league.

Their EPA per play from heavy is 0.07, which is 8th in the league and would be 9th when compared to the entire league on any play. Their success rate is 52.7%, again 8th in the NFL and 2nd (!) overall. And their explosive play rate is 13%, behind only Buffalo and San Francisco. They’re good, sometimes even great, from heavy personnel.

Still Working On The Light

You’d think the Seahawks would be figuring out the wide receiver thing, given they have some pretty great ones. Signing Rashid Shaheed was presumably a big part of that. So far, we haven’t seen it play out. The EPA per play sits at -0.12, 24th in the NFL and hypothetically 29th overall. Three or more wide receivers just isn’t cutting it right now.

The success rate sits at 38.2%, which is 27th, and 29th overall. The 9.6% explosive rate is passable, about 17th, so there’s something salvageable here. But right now, this is one of the main things holding the Seahawks back from really opening up the offense. Hard to go aggressive and pass-happy when you can only put two receivers on the field.

The Big Issue

Here’s the thing. Usually, teams go light on third down, or at least obvious passing situations. So this failure to produce from light sets is definitely correlated to Seattle ranking 31st in the league in third down conversions. And if this doesn’t get better, I can only assume the third down issues will persist. And I don’t know if a team that converts 31% of third downs can win it all.

The primary fix I can put forward is to figure out how to beat the blitz. While the overall stats don’t bear out a massive downswing in performance when blitzed, Darnold has been less efficient when defenses bring the heat. Last year, one of the key attributes of Sam Darnold was the ability to punish the blitz with big plays. We’ll need to get back to that.

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