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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is heading into the final days before Election Day with the wind at her back, according to the final pre-election Siena University poll.
The Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40% in the Empire State’s gubernatorial race — a 14-point lead among likely voters, the survey released Wednesday claims.
Her lead grew from 9 points (50% to 41%) in last month’s Siena survey, a five-point jump.
“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Meanwhile, in the race for state attorney general, Democratic incumbent Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%.
In the race for state comptroller, four-term Democratic incumbent Tom DiNapoli has the backing of 59% of voters compared to 32% for Republican Joseph Hernandez.
A key finding in the poll is that registered independents favor Democratic incumbent Hochul and James by 10 points and 11 points, respectively, over their GOP opponents.
Blakeman led among independents by 5 points last month.
NY Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman a week before the election. John Angelillo/UPI/Shutterstock
The Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40% in the Empire State’s gubernatorial race — a 14-point lead among likely voters, the survey released Wednesday claims. REUTERSIn 2022, Hochul defeated GOP rival Lee Zeldin by a narrow 6 points because he won over independent voters.
In the Empire State, where Dems outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, a Republican candidate needs to dominate votes not affiliated with a political party for any shot at winning a statewide race.
“And here’s the bottom line: for Republicans to win statewide, they must win convincingly upstate and in the downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they must win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one enrollment advantage,” Greenberg said.
“But with only a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents, Hochul leads 67% to 23% among likely New York City voters and splitting the burbs and upstate.”
Hochul also held a 14-point lead in an independent Quinnipiac University poll released last week, 55% to 41%. That survey had Blakeman ahead among independents 51% to 44%.
However, internal polls conducted by Blakeman and those done by GOP-leaning groups claim it’s a tighter single-digit race.
The Siena poll also found voters are more sour on what’s happening in the United States than in New York.
The poll found that 66% of voters said the US is heading in the wrong direction, substantially higher than the 49% who said New York is on the wrong track.
A gender gap favors Hochul. She is supported by 59% of women voters compared to 36% for Blakeman, a 23-point margin.
Among men, Hochul led by 6 points — 50% to 44%.
Hochul leads among Latinos by more than two-to-one, and with Black voters, 81%-16%, while splitting white voters with Blakeman.
There’s another good sign for Hochul as she seeks a second full, four-year term. At least half of voters view her favorably for the first time in five years of Siena polling.
In the latest survey, 51% of voters view her favorably and 45% unfavorably, up a bit from 48% favorable to 46% unfavorable in September.
Likewise, 51% of respondents approved of the job she’s doing compared to 46% who disapproved, up from a split last month.
As for Blakeman, 39% of voters viewed him favorably and 40% unfavorably, with the rest undecided or not having an opinion.
Regardless of who they support for governor, 68% of respondents believed Hochul would win compared to 23% of those who predicted Blakeman would.
Voters were divided on who would make New York more affordable — 30% said Hochul, 27% said Blakeman and 35% said neither would.
A plurality of voters said New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of fellow Democrat Hochul was more of a positive (45%) than a negative (30%), with the rest saying it would have little to no effect or had no opinion.
Conversely, nearly half of voters said President Trump’s endorsement of Blakmen would be a negative for the Nassau County executive’s campaign, while just 29% said it was a positive — with the rest saying it had little to no effect or were unsure.
The Siena Poll was conducted from Oct. 19 – 22 among 807 likely voters. The survey questioned 494 voters through mobile or landline phone calls, while 313 were completed via text or web. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Election Day is Nov. 3.

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